Player Rater

10th August 2011 Category: Analysis

Image: Slattery Media Group

Bookmaker, Sportsbet has decided - 4 rounds out from the end of the season - to pay out bets on Chris Judd for the 2011 Brownlow.

Based on the fact that Judd polled so well last season (in what most consider to be an inferior year), popular opinion suggests Judd will blitz the field this season, despite not leading any of the major media awards.

Judd’s odds of securing a third Brownlow have improved due to the suspension of a number of competing stars. Now it seems only a run-in with the tribunal can prevent him from winning the medal in 2011.

Judd's had an incredible run with the umpires in recent years; his shorts odds this season are heavily influenced by his polling history. But how has the competition faired in recent counts?

Going by polling results, Scott Pendlebury might be Judd’s stiffest competition. In 2009 and 2010, Pendlebury was the only player that averaged a higher number of votes-per-games-polled (VPGP) than Judd. Pendlebury in 09-10 averaged 2.4 VPGP, Judd in the same period averaged 2.35. In simple terms this means that when Pendlebury polls votes, he gets them in lots of 2’s and 3’s. In 2010 Pendlebury polled 21 votes in 8 games - 5 x 3 votes and 3 x 2 votes.

Sportsbet 2011 Brownlow Odds: Judd ($1.80), Pendlebury ($8.50), Murphy ($10.00), Dal Santo ($11.00), Swan ($12.00), Ablett ($18.00).

2010 Brownlow Voting:

2009 Brownlow Voting: