Player Rater

21st September 2011 Category: Betting

Image: Slattery Media Group

"Goodes in Brownlow best form, stats show"

"Adam Goodes's late medal mail"

"Judd nervous as punters back Goodes"

"Brownlow in sight for Adam Goodes"

Despite the headlines, it’s unlikely Adam Goodes has done enough to win the Brownlow this year.

Goodes stands as the great hope for betting agencies, who will lose big if Chris Judd takes home his 3rd medal next week. 

Goodes’ plunge in Brownlow betting, has been media inspired. As if as a favour to the betting companies that stump them, AFL media agencies around the country have pushed the prospect of Goddes winning his third Brownlow. In a matter of weeks, Goodes went from 67-1 to 17-1 to outright second favourite at 5-1*.

The deception is grounded in fact. Goodes had a great end to the season, but betting companies know that the average punter doesn’t bet based on well grounded knowledge and analysis, they bet based on hype and popular opinion.

They also know that betting markets are just like stock markets, they can be manipulated by the media.