Inconsistent clubs and their most inconsistent stars

28th July 2011 Category: Statistical Analysis

Images: Slattery Media Group

Yesterday’s article focused on the inconsistency of the Bulldogs midfield. Today's post looks at the rest of the competition. 

As a way of measuring the inconsistency of a clubs top players, we’ve identified the top 5 possession winners at each club, then calculated their average disposals - in games won - compared with their average disposals - in games lost. 

The theory is that the closer the two averages are, the more consistent the player is. And the closer to zero the collective average of the 5 players, the more consistent a teams stars are. 

Notes:

  • In order to get a fair sample, only players that have played in at least 13 games including at least 5 wins and 5 losses have been included. This eliminates Collingwood, Geelong, Adelaide, Brisbane, Gold Coast and Port Adelaide.
  • For the record, Collingwood and Geelong's figures were: Pies: -5.85% and Cats: +2.89%.
  • The table supports the popular belief that North Melbourne and Sydney are honest, consistent teams. And the Demons and the Bulldogs are inconsistent.
  • Fremantle had an inconsistent start to the season, but one of the other reasons for their high position is that 3 of their top 8 possession winners this season have missed 5 or more games.
 
 
 
Top 5 Avg. Disposal Winners
Avg. % Diff.
Consistent
Inconsistent
Melbourne Moloney, Jones, Trengove, Sylvia, Gysberts -15.73% Jones (+0.9%) Moloney (-35.7%)
Bulldogs Boyd, Griffen, Cross, Cooney, Higgins -15.57% Boyd (+0.3%) Cross (-25.7%)
Fremantle Fyfe, Pavlich, Broughton, Hill, Ibbotson -15.50% Hill (-10.7%) Ibbotson (-23.9%)
West Coast Priddis, Embley, Rosa, Shuey, Cox -10.17% Priddis (+4.1%) Embley (-21.0%)
Richmond Deledio, Cotchin, Martin, Grigg, Houli -9.89% Grigg (+0.5%) Houli (-18.9%)
St Kilda Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard, Gram, Fisher -9.02% Fisher (+6.7%) Montagna (-30.3%)
Carlton Murphy, Judd, Scotland, Gibbs, Carrazzo -7.21% Gibbs (-0.8%) Carrazzo (-22.1%)
Essendon Stanton, Heppell, Zaharakis, Hocking, Howlett -6.66% Heppell (0.0%) Hocking (-35.8%)
Hawthorn Mitchell, Suckling, Hodge, Shiels, Birchall -5.75% Mitchell (+11.2%) Birchall (-33.3%)
Sydney O'Keefe, Bolton, Kennedy, McVeigh, Hannebery -2.77% McVeigh (+1.4%) Bolton (-20.6%)
North Melb.  Swallow, Wells, Rawlings, Harvey, Adams 0.90% Swallow (-3.1%) Rawlings (-16.1%)

Using Melbourne as an example, here is how the figures are calculated. Melbourne supporters should find some comfort in the fact that the average age of their top 5 is 23, and their total number of games played is 397. The Bulldogs top 5 have an average age of 26, and have played a total 744 games.
 
  Avg. Disp. (Wins) Avg. Disp. (Losses) % Difference
Brent Moloney 29.4 18.9 -35.71%
Nathan Jones 23.6 23.8 +0.85%
Jack Trengove 21.1 19.2 -9.00%
Colin Sylvia 20.9 19.9 -4.78%
Jordan Gysberts 23 16.1 -30.01%
Average % Difference: -15.73%

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